Looking back to see the future: building nuclear power plants in Europe

The so-called ‘nuclear renaissance’ in Europe is promulgated by the execution of two large engineering projects involving the construction of two European Pressurized Reactors (EPRs) in Flamanville, France and Olkiluoto in Finland. As both projects have faced budget overruns and delays, this paper analyses their governance and history to derive lessons useful for the construction of future projects. Analysis indicates that the reasons for these poor outcomes are: overoptimistic estimations, first-of-a-kind (FOAK) issues and undervaluation of regulation requirements. These pitfalls have the potential to impact on many other engineering construction projects and highlight fruitful areas of further research into project performance

Welfare Performance of Three Foothold Traps for Capturing North American River Otters \u3ci\u3eLontra canadensis\u3c/i\u3e

Foothold traps are effective tools for the live capture and restraint of wildlife for management and research. Successful river otter Lontra canadensis restoration programs throughout North America used them extensively. Restoration programs used a variety of methods and models of foothold traps, but comprehensive efforts to describe and quantify injuries associated with river otter captures have been limited. We evaluated injuries of river otters caught in three commercially available models of foothold traps including the number 11 double long-spring with standard jaws, the number 11 double long-spring with double jaws, and the number 2 coil-spring trap. Based on examinations of 70 captured river otters, we classified 78% of the total inj uries detected as ‘‘mild’’ (n=174 injuries) and 17% were classified as ‘‘moderate’’ (n= 37 injuries). We classified less than 3% of the injuries observed as ‘‘moderately severe’’ or ‘‘severe.’’ We focused only on the animal welfare performance of traps; the three trap types we tested met the animal welfare criteria required for inclusion in the best management practices for trapping river otter. The criteria based on International Standards Organization guidelines used in this assessment of trap performance provides a scientific basis for future evaluations of river otter welfare when foothold traps are used for restoration, research, and population management

Bridging psychology and biology - the analysis of individuals in groups

Biological systems are particularly prone to variation, and the authors argue that such variation must be regarded as important data in its own right. The authors describe a method in which individual differences are studied within the framework of a general theory of the population as a whole and illustrate how this method can be used to address three types of issues: the nature of the mechanisms that give rise to a specific ability, such as mental imagery; the role of psychological or biological mediators of environmental challenges, such as the biological bases for differences in dispositional mood; and the existence of processes that have nonadditive effects with behavioral and physiological variables, such as factors that modulate the response to stress and its effects on the immune response. Variation occurs around every central tendency, bu

The Affective Impact of Financial Skewness on Neural Activity and Choice

Few finance theories consider the influence of “skewness” (or large and asymmetric but unlikely outcomes) on financial choice. We investigated the impact of skewed gambles on subjects' neural activity, self-reported affective responses, and subsequent preferences using functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI). Neurally, skewed gambles elicited more anterior insula activation than symmetric gambles equated for expected value and variance, and positively skewed gambles also specifically elicited more nucleus accumbens (NAcc) activation than negatively skewed gambles. Affectively, positively skewed gambles elicited more positive arousal and negatively skewed gambles elicited more negative arousal than symmetric gambles equated for expected value and variance. Subjects also preferred positively skewed gambles more, but negatively skewed gambles less than symmetric gambles of equal expected value. Individual differences in both NAcc activity and positive arousal predicted preferences for positively skewed gambles. These findings support an anticipatory affect account in which statistical properties of gambles—including skewness—can influence neural activity, affective responses, and ultimately, choice

On de-bunking “Fake News” in the post-truth era : how to reduce statistical error in research

The authors note with alarm that statistical noise caused by statistical incompetence is beginning to creep into research on cost overrun in public investment projects, contaminating research with work that does not meet basic standards of validity and reliability. The paper gives examples of such work and proposes three heuristics to root out the problem. First, researchers who are not statisticians, or do not have a strong background in statistics, should abstain from doing statistical analysis, and instead rely on more experienced colleagues, preferably professional statisticians. Second, journal referees should clearly state their level of statistical proficiency to journal editors, so these can set the right referee team. Finally, journal editors should make sure that at least one referee is capable of reviewing the statistical and methodological aspects of a paper. The work under review would have benefitted from observing these simple heuristics, as would any work based on statistical analysis.Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.Transport and Logistic

When the going gets tough: Employee reactions to large‐scale organizational change and the role of employee Machiavellianism

Large-scale, long-term change initiatives take time to unfold, which can be a source ofuncertainty and strain. Investigating the initial 19 months of a large-scale change, weargue that during these stages, employees' change-related beliefs become more negativeover time, which negatively affects their work engagement and, ultimately, increasestheir turnover intentions. Furthermore, we investigate the impact of a trait, Machiavel-lianism, on change reactions and propose that employees high in Machiavellianism reactmore negatively during change processes as they are especially susceptible to uncer-tainty and stress. We test our (cross-level) moderated mediation model in a three-wavelongitudinal study among employees undergoing a large-scale change (T1: n = 1,602; T2:n =1,113;T3:n = 759). We find that employees' beliefs about the impact and value ofthe change are indeed negatively related to change duration and that decreases in theseperceptions come with a decline in engagement and increases in turnover intentions.Moreover, employees high in Machiavellianism react more strongly to a deterioration inchange-related beliefs, showing stronger reductions in engagement and strongerincreases in turnover intentions than employees low in Machiavellianism. Our studyoffers explanations for the negative effects of large-scale changes including an explana-tory factor for disparate employee reactions to change over time

The role of conviction and narrative in decision-making under radical uncertainty

We propose conviction narrative theory (CNT) to broaden decision-making theory for it better to understand and analyse how subjectively means-end rational actors cope in contexts in which the traditional assumptions in decision-making models fail to hold. Conviction narratives enable actors to draw on their beliefs, causal models and rules of thumb to identify opportunities worth acting on, to simulate the future outcome of their actions and to feel sufficiently convinced to act. The framework focuses on how narrative and emotion combine to allow actors to deliberate and to select actions that they think will produce the outcomes they desire. It specifies connections between particular emotions and deliberative thought, hypothesizing that approach and avoidance emotions evoked during narrative simulation play a crucial role. Two mental states, Divided and Integrated, in which narratives can be formed or updated, are introduced and used to explain some familiar problems that traditional models cannot

Confirmation bias in the utilization of others' opinion strength

Humans tend to discount information that undermines past choices and judgments. This confirmation bias has significant impact on domains ranging from politics to science and education. Little is known about the mechanisms underlying this fundamental characteristic of belief formation. Here we report a mechanism underlying the confirmation bias. Specifically, we provide evidence for a failure to use the strength of others' disconfirming opinions to alter confidence in judgments, but adequate use when opinions are confirmatory. This bias is related to reduced neural sensitivity to the strength of others' opinions in the posterior medial prefrontal cortex when opinions are disconfirming. Our results demonstrate that existing judgments alter the neural representation of information strength, leaving the individual less likely to alter opinions in the face of disagreement